The Minister for Resources' decision was informed by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s (ACCC) December 2024 interim gas inquiry report and additional information on the Western Australian gas market.
The ACCC report forecasts enough gas across the east coast to meet domestic demand from April to June 2025, even if liquified natural gas (LNG) producers export all their uncontracted gas.
This means the government is confident that:
- Australia’s east coast gas market will likely have enough supply from April to June 2025
- domestic demand for the east coast gas market can be met without reducing gas exports
- there are sufficient mitigations to address risks for supply-demand balance for the east coast gas market and the Western Australian gas market
- should a localised gas supply emergency or shortfall arise, the Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) powers allow it to respond in several ways, including by directing gas flows in the east coast, if required.
The ACCC report forecasts that supply is expected to exceed demand, with an east coast gas surplus of between 22 petajoules (PJ) and 38 PJ for the second quarter. The size of the surplus will depend on how much of their available uncontracted gas LNG producers export.
The ACCC report draws on gas demand data from the AEMO 2024 Gas statement of opportunities report and gas supply information from gas producers in October 2024.
The minister is satisfied there are no significant risks for supply-demand balance for Western Australia (WA). This is due to an increased supply of gas and a decrease in gas demand since the release of AEMO’s WA 2023 Gas statement of opportunities report in December 2023.