The Minister for Resources has determined there is not likely to be a domestic gas shortfall during this quarter.
The decision was informed by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s (ACCC) Gas inquiry March 2025 interim report and the Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) 2025 Gas statement of opportunities.
The ACCC report forecasts between 9 PJ shortfall to 6 PJ surplus in the east coast market depending on how much uncontracted gas is exported.
The minister has worked with the east coast producers to develop an industry-led solution. The new commitments will ensure at least 9 PJ of additional gas is available to the domestic market across the quarter. These new commitments mean there will be a buffer of gas supply during a time of peak demand.
This means the government is confident that:
- Australia’s east coast gas market will likely have enough supply from July to September 2025.
- Domestic demand for the east coast gas market can be met without reducing gas exports.
- There are sufficient mitigations to address risks for supply-demand balance for the east coast gas market and the Western Australian gas market.
- If a localised gas supply emergency or shortfall arises, AEMO’s powers allow it to respond in several ways, including directing gas flows in the east coast, if required.
The minister is satisfied there are no significant risks for supply-demand balance for Western Australia (WA). That’s due to an increased supply of gas and a decrease in gas demand since AEMO released the WA 2024 Gas statement of opportunities report in December 2024.