Australia’s resources and energy export earnings are forecast to fall over the next 2 years, reflecting declines in bulk commodity prices and a rise in the AUD/USD.
The December 2024 Resources and energy quarterly forecasts Australia’s resources and energy export earnings to decline to $372 billion in 2024–25 from $415 billion in 2023–24. This is a strong result in historical terms and consistent with the September REQ. Total resources and energy export volumes are forecast to rise modestly over the outlook.
With the impacts of global disruptions subsiding, prices are decreasing, causing a slight decline in aggregate earnings. Falls in prices for bulk commodities such as iron ore, coal and LNG are expected to bring earnings down to around $351 billion in 2025–26.
Commodity markets face short term headwinds as the market recalibrates from disruptions and towards the global energy transition. Demand for key transition resources are expected to support Australia’s export volumes over the outlook period.
Highlights from the December REQ include:
- Iron ore remains Australia’s largest earner. Iron ore exploration expenditure was also the highest it’s been in a decade – a great sign for the continued strength of Australia’s top earning export.
- Lower LNG prices will see LNG earnings fall by $4.6 billion to $64 billion in 2024–25, and then fall to $60 billion in 2025–26. Volume forecasts are uncertain: modest declines in output at ageing fields may see export volumes edge down, but these field declines may be offset by recent announcements regarding new supply.
- Surging gold prices are forecast to see gold exports rise to over $34 billion in 2024–25, up from $33 billion in 2023–24. Gold is expected to overtake thermal coal as the fourth highest export earner in 2025–26.
- A sharp rise in alumina prices, driven by reduced supply of alumina and bauxite from Guinea and Australia, is forecast to see alumina exports rise to $11.5 billion in 2024–25, up from $8.5 billion in 2023–24.
