Resources and energy quarterly: March 2025

Australian resource and energy commodity exports are expected to fall to $387 billion in 2024–25 from $415 billion in 2023–24. Modest further falls are likely over the 5-year outlook period, with exports steadying at about $343 billion (or $300 billion in real terms) as the decade ends. Influences will include:

• Modest global economic growth is expected over the outlook period, as lower inflation allows some central banks to make further small cuts in official interest rates. Trade actions and retaliatory measures will likely detract from global growth and may further geopolitical tensions.
• Trade actions and retaliatory measures will also shape supply chains, which were already impacted by policy efforts to boost resilience in the wake of COVID-induced disruptions. Continued relocation of global manufacturing capacity will likely worsen global overcapacity.
• The energy transition will continue, although the pace remains uncertain. Policy plays a role, but technology (adoption rates and innovation) will remain the key determinant of commodity demand.

Iron ore prices are expected to ease over the outlook to 2030 due to softer global demand and rising global supply.

• Australian iron ore export volumes increased by 1.2% year-on-year to 902 Mt in 2024. Following 2 decades of rapid growth, Australia’s iron ore output is expected to peak within 3 years as new production is developed to sustain output.
• World steel production is projected to rise to about 2 billion tonnes by the end of the outlook period (2030). Declining output in China will be offset by new capacity in India, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East, and a modest recovery by North American and European steelmakers.
• Spot iron ore prices have been stable in early 2025, after falling for most of 2024. Lower forecast prices will reduce Australia's iron ore export earnings (in real terms) from $117 billion in 2024–25 to $109 billion in 2025–26 and $81 billion in 2029–30.

A recovery in production is forecast to result in Australian exports increasing by around 20Mt during the outlook period. Import demand growth in India and Southeast Asia will likely more than offset weaker Chinese demand.

• Metallurgical coal prices have trended down in recent months, due to weakness in steel production. Prices are expected to decline in real terms to US$183 a tonne in 2030, normalising from extraordinarily high levels in 2022 and 2023.
• Australian exports are expected to peak at 174 million tonnes in 2027–28, as new mines come online. Exporters are expected to take a small amount of market share from Chinese domestic suppliers.
• Earnings are expected to fall from $56 billion in 2023–24 to $33 billion in 2029–30 (in real terms), as prices normalise.

Thermal coal trade is expected to fall over the outlook as the energy transition continues.

• Australia’s thermal coal export earnings are expected to ease from $34 billion in 2024–25 to around $22 billion by 2029–30 (in real terms) as prices continue to fall.
• Thermal coal spot prices are expected to fall slowly over coming years, from US$135 a tonne in 2024 to US$98 a tonne (in real terms) by 2030. Contract prices are expected to fall from around US$140 a tonne (in JFY 2024–25), converging on spot prices.
• Australia’s export volumes are expected to decline to around 199 million tonnes (Mt) per annum by the end of the outlook period from a downward revision to the output of some mines.

Gas markets are entering a new growth cycle as rising Asian demand meets rising US and Qatari supply.

• Australia’s LNG export revenues are forecast to decline from $72 billion in 2024–25 to $45 billion (in real terms) by 2029–30. The outlook for 2024–25 has been revised up from the December 2024 Resources and energy quarterly due to minor supply disruptions and high prices.
• Forecast falls in export earnings largely reflect an expected easing in LNG prices, though depletion of some reserves could weigh on volumes after 2028.
• New LNG supply from the US and Qatar is projected to reduce prices from US$15/MMbtu (in early 2025) to US$9/MMbtu (in real terms) by 2030.

Crude oil prices are falling as strong expected supply, and weak demand, puts downward pressure on prices. Australia’s export earnings are expected to fall as prices and output fall.

• Brent oil prices have been volatile through 2024 and March quarter 2025, following rising and falling geopolitical tensions. Prices stayed in the US$70–90 a barrel range and are projected to fall to US$57 a barrel in 2030 in real terms.
• Global oil supply is projected to reach 107 mb/d by 2030, with strong supply growth expected in the Americas.
• Australian exports are projected to fall from $12.9 billion in 2023–24 to $5.5 billion in 2029–30 in real terms, as fields deplete and prices fall.

Australia’s gold export earnings have been revised up across the outlook period due to higher-than-expected US dollar gold prices and persistent demand side strength from investors and central banks, export earnings will peak in 2024–25 and remain high to 2029–30.

• Gold prices rose 35% to the December quarter (year-on-year). Prices have been boosted by global economic uncertainty and monetary easing by major central banks. Prices are forecast to rise in 2025 before falling to about US$2,200 an ounce by 2030 (in real terms) as supply lifts and central banks meet target holdings.
• Australian gold output rose to 72 tonnes in the December quarter 2024. Australian gold output is projected to rise over the outlook period to 377 tonnes a year by 2029–30 (from 258 in 2023–24), with output lifting across multiple large-scale operations and new projects coming online.
• Australian gold earnings are forecast to increase to $36 billion in 2024–25 due to a rise in export volumes and a high gold price. Gold exports are forecast to be $32 billion by 2029–30 due to the forecast gold price decline.

Australia’s combined aluminium, alumina and bauxite earnings for 2024–25 have been revised up by 13% due to a weaker exchange rate and a higher-than-expected rise in alumina export values and bauxite export volumes.

• The Australian alumina price hit record highs in 2024, on the back of reduced supply of alumina and bauxite from Australia and Guinea. The alumina price is expected to fall over the outlook period as supply recovers. Growing demand for energy-efficient cars and technologies is forecast to push the aluminium price up to US$2,713 (or US$2,445 in real terms) a tonne by 2030.
• Australia’s primary aluminium output is expected to be stable at 1.6 million tonnes (Mt) a year over the outlook period. Increased production at South32’s Worsley alumina refinery is expected to lift Australian output to 18 Mt in 2029–30. New projects and sustained output in existing mines are expected to lift Australian bauxite output to 104 Mt in 2029–30.
• High Australian alumina prices and bauxite export volumes are forecast to drive Australia’s AAB export earnings to a new record high of $23 billion in 2024–25. Earnings are expected to fall to $18 billion a year in real terms by 2029–30, as alumina prices ease.

Copper prices have risen since the start of 2025. Prices are expected to persist to 2030, driven by higher demand and a tight concentrate market.

• Copper prices have risen 11% since the start of 2025, driven by strong Chinese and US demand. Prices are expected to average US$9,570 a tonne in 2025 and rise to US$9,870 a tonne by 2030 in real terms.
• Global demand is projected to grow by an average 2.5% annually to reach 33.2 Mt by 2030. Growth in copper demand will be driven by investment in low emission technologies, data centres and urbanisation.
• Australia’s copper exports are projected to grow from 754 kt in 2023–24 to 1.1 Mt in 2029–30, sustained by new mines and expansions. Export earnings are projected to grow – from $11.7 billion in 2023–24 to $17.9 billion (real terms) in 2029–30 due to output growth.

Australia’s nickel export earnings continue to be impacted by low prices. Prices may recover modestly as market surpluses narrow late in the outlook period (2025 to 2030).

• Persistent growth in global refined nickel supply is expected to contain prices around US$17,000 a tonne (in real terms) for the next few years. However, easing supply growth toward the end of the outlook from major producers (like Indonesia) is expected to help reduce the current global surplus, and see prices recover to average $18,000/t by 2030.
• World nickel demand is projected to see steady growth over the outlook period, with EV batteries representing an increasing share of global end-use demand. Global stainless-steel production is expected to ease from its high growth rates of recent years but remain a continued driver of demand to 2030.
• Weaker nickel prices and cuts to domestic capacity in 2024 are expected to see Australia’s export earnings fall to $1.2 billion in 2024–25. However, gradual improvement in prices later in the outlook period, combined with recovering production, is expected to see exports reach $1.5 billion (in real terms) by 2029–30.

Zinc prices are expected to remain flat until 2027, before rising modestly due to demand growth in Asia.

• Prices are forecast to average US$2,800 a tonne in 2025, decreasing to US$2,600 a tonne by 2027 before recovering to US$2,700 a tonne (in real terms) by 2030. Growth in later years is expected to be driven by demand for galvanised steel in manufacturing and construction.
• Global zinc demand is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.1%, reaching 15.4 Mt by 2030, with Asia leading this growth.
• Australian zinc exports are forecast at $4.5 billion and $3.9 billion in 2024–25 and 2025–26. Export earnings are projected to ease to $3.1 billion (real terms) by 2029–30.

Slow price recovery and production curtailments are expected to improve balance in lithium markets.

• Australia’s lithium export earnings are forecast to increase in real terms from $5.2 billion in 2024–25 to $8.2 billion in 2029–30, driven largely by growth in export volumes. Australian mine output is expected to grow by about 5% a year to 2030.
• Global lithium demand is forecast to grow by almost 13% a year to 2030, driven by rising electric vehicle (EV) adoption and battery energy storage system (BESS) deployment.
• The current oversupply in the global lithium market is expected to diminish over the outlook period, leading to an improved supply-demand balance by 2030. Global refining capacity and downstream demand are expected to remain heavily concentrated in China.

A special chapter explores the emerging potential for critical mineral production in Australia not typically covered by the REQ, including antimony, cobalt, graphite, magnesium, manganese, rare earth elements, silicon, titania-based mineral sands, tungsten and vanadium (other critical minerals).

• Australia’s exports of these other critical minerals are conservatively estimated at $7.6 billion in 2024–25. Other critical mineral exports could be worth between $5.7 billion and $9.5 billion in real terms by 2029–30, depending on how much of Australia’s advanced project pipeline comes online in the outlook period.
• Australia’s total critical minerals exports could reach $19 billion in 2029–30 – making critical minerals the sixth largest category of resource and energy exports.
• Manganese currently makes up the largest portion of other critical mineral exports, though the approaching end of life of a major manganese mine is expected to see exports fall by the end of the outlook period.
• Australia’s first rare earth refinery (Lynas’s Kalgoorlie refinery) recently started operations, with Eneabba expected to reach production in the next few years. Exports of raw and refined rare earth elements could reach between $1.3 and $3.7 billion in 2029–30.
• Emerging critical minerals facilities will create economic opportunities, including new graphite production which is expected to reach $576 million in value by 2029–30.